A well-positioned short-term rental in Big Bear Lake, California is estimated to gross $48,000 - $98,000 a year, at an average daily rate of $245 - $420 and annual occupancy of 50% - 60%. Net cash flow after a full expense load and debt service typically lands between $3,000 - $18,000. Those are estimates for illustration rather than a projection for any specific property.
Big Bear Lake short-term rental numbers for 2026
| Metric | Estimated range |
|---|---|
| Entry price | $500,000 - $950,000 |
| Average daily rate | $245 - $420 |
| Annual occupancy | 50% - 60% |
| Gross annual revenue | $48,000 - $98,000 |
| Net cash flow after debt service | $3,000 - $18,000 |
| Peak season | Winter ski season and summer lake season, with two soft shoulders |
| Do we buy here? | No, we do not currently buy here. |
Figures are estimates assembled from our own closings and active-listing comparables, offered for illustration. They are not projections for any specific property, and actual performance varies with location, condition, amenities, management, and season.
What drives demand in Big Bear Lake
Big Bear is a rare dual-season mountain market: skiing in winter, the lake and hiking in summer, both feeding off the Los Angeles basin roughly two hours away. That gives it two peaks rather than one, which is genuinely attractive, and two real shoulder troughs, which is not.
Regulation in Big Bear Lake
The City of Big Bear Lake operates a transient private home rental permit programme with a cap on the number of permits, and county areas have their own rules. A capped permit regime means the permit itself is the scarce asset, and a purchase made in anticipation of obtaining one is speculative.
Regulation is a pass or fail gate, not a factor to weigh against revenue. Confirm the rules for the specific parcel and the HOA before you write an offer, because county-level permissiveness frequently does not apply inside city limits. See how to check STR regulations before buying.
What a deal has to clear here
- Revenue supported by real comps. Eight to twelve active listings within one bedroom of the subject, live at least twelve months, underwritten to the median rather than the mean.
- Cash flow after a full expense load. Management at market rate, cleaning, supplies, utilities, insurance at short-term rental rates, property tax at the reassessed value, and debt service at the rate you will actually get.
- A reserve sized to the trough. Peak season is Winter ski season and summer lake season, with two soft shoulders. Model the worst three consecutive months against fixed costs, because those costs do not pause.
- Regulatory headroom. A permit you can actually obtain, in a jurisdiction that is not mid-moratorium, with governing documents that permit nightly stays.
- An exit that does not depend on the STR premium. If the only buyer is another short-term rental investor, you carry regulatory risk twice.
Our take on Big Bear Lake
No. The permit cap plus California state income tax plus a basis that already prices in the dual season leaves too little room. A buyer acquiring an existing permitted property with verified transfer rights is in a different position, but that is a specialist purchase rather than something we would source.
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Frequently asked questions
How much can you make on Airbnb in Big Bear Lake?
A well-positioned short-term rental in Big Bear Lake is estimated to gross $48,000 - $98,000 a year, at an average daily rate of $245 - $420 and annual occupancy of 50% - 60%. Net cash flow after a full expense load and debt service typically lands in the $3,000 - $18,000 range. Figures are estimates for illustration, and actual performance varies with location, capacity, amenities, and management.
What does it cost to buy a short-term rental in Big Bear Lake?
Entry prices in Big Bear Lake generally run $500,000 - $950,000 for property that can compete in the nightly rental market. On top of the purchase you should budget closing costs, furnishing of roughly $20,000 to $45,000 depending on size, and an operating reserve sized to the shoulder season.
Is Big Bear Lake a good short-term rental market in 2026?
No. The permit cap plus California state income tax plus a basis that already prices in the dual season leaves too little room. A buyer acquiring an existing permitted property with verified transfer rights is in a different position, but that is a specialist purchase rather than something we would source.
What is the peak season in Big Bear Lake?
Peak demand runs Winter ski season and summer lake season, with two soft shoulders. Because fixed costs continue through the shoulder months, the reserve requirement should be modelled against the worst three consecutive months rather than against the annual average.