Across the 20 markets we track, a well-positioned short-term rental is estimated to gross between $38,000 and $230,000 a year in 2026. The spread is driven less by market prestige than by the revenue-to-price ratio: the cheapest markets on this list frequently produce the strongest returns per dollar deployed.
Estimated 2026 revenue by market
| Market | State | Gross revenue | ADR | Entry price | We buy? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park City | Utah | $95,000 - $230,000 | $420 - $780 | $900,000 - $2,200,000 | No |
| Smoky Mountains | Tennessee | $78,000 - $210,000 | $285 - $520 | $550,000 - $1,600,000 | Yes |
| Scottsdale | Arizona | $80,000 - $180,000 | $300 - $560 | $650,000 - $1,500,000 | Yes |
| Destin | Florida | $78,000 - $175,000 | $290 - $540 | $600,000 - $1,400,000 | Yes |
| Gatlinburg | Tennessee | $70,000 - $165,000 | $265 - $470 | $500,000 - $1,300,000 | Yes |
| Sedona | Arizona | $85,000 - $165,000 | $310 - $520 | $700,000 - $1,400,000 | No |
| Lake Tahoe | California and Nevada | $70,000 - $165,000 | $330 - $620 | $750,000 - $1,800,000 | No |
| Panama City Beach | Florida | $62,000 - $135,000 | $240 - $430 | $450,000 - $1,000,000 | Yes |
| Nashville | Tennessee | $62,000 - $125,000 | $225 - $400 | $550,000 - $1,100,000 | Yes |
| Poconos | Pennsylvania | $55,000 - $125,000 | $245 - $430 | $400,000 - $900,000 | Yes |
| Kissimmee | Florida | $58,000 - $115,000 | $210 - $360 | $420,000 - $780,000 | Yes |
| Austin | Texas | $58,000 - $115,000 | $230 - $430 | $550,000 - $1,100,000 | Yes |
| Gulf Shores | Alabama | $55,000 - $115,000 | $230 - $410 | $450,000 - $950,000 | No |
| Phoenix and Mesa | Arizona | $55,000 - $110,000 | $215 - $380 | $450,000 - $850,000 | Yes |
| Broken Bow | Oklahoma | $52,000 - $110,000 | $255 - $420 | $350,000 - $750,000 | Yes |
| Cape Coral | Florida | $50,000 - $105,000 | $210 - $360 | $400,000 - $800,000 | Yes |
| Denver | Colorado | $55,000 - $105,000 | $210 - $370 | $600,000 - $1,100,000 | Yes |
| Big Bear Lake | California | $48,000 - $98,000 | $245 - $420 | $500,000 - $950,000 | No |
| Branson | Missouri | $42,000 - $88,000 | $195 - $330 | $320,000 - $700,000 | Yes |
| Joshua Tree | California | $38,000 - $78,000 | $195 - $340 | $400,000 - $750,000 | No |
Figures are estimates assembled from our own closings and active-listing comparables, offered for illustration. They are not projections for any specific property, and actual performance varies with location, condition, amenities, management, and season.
Revenue is the wrong way to rank a market
The table above sorts by gross revenue, which is how most people read market data and is close to the least useful ordering. Park City tops the list and is a market we do not buy in. Broken Bow sits near the bottom and produces the strongest returns in our portfolio.
The reason is the revenue-to-price ratio. A Park City property grossing $190,000 against a $1.6M basis produces a worse return than a Broken Bow cabin grossing $85,000 against a $500,000 basis, and it does so while concentrating almost all of its revenue into a single season that a bad snow year can wreck.
A quick way to rank markets honestly
Divide estimated gross revenue by entry price. Anything above roughly 0.16 is worth underwriting properly. Below about 0.10, the property is very unlikely to cash flow after debt service at current rates unless you put down substantially more than 25%.
What moves these numbers
- Sleeping capacity. Revenue tracks head count far more closely than square footage. In leisure markets, adding a bedroom often adds more revenue than adding 400 square feet.
- Distance to the demand driver. Ten minutes of drive time to a park entrance or beach access can be a 30% revenue difference.
- Filter amenities. Hot tub, pool, and pet friendly are search filters. A property without one is not competing at a lower price, it is invisible to guests who apply that filter.
- Listing maturity. A new listing with no reviews underperforms an established comparable by a wide margin in year one. Underwrite the discount.
How these estimates were assembled
Figures come from our own closings across more than 500 homes, combined with active-listing comparables in each submarket. For each market we take properties within one bedroom of the local median investment product, live at least twelve months, and report the interquartile range rather than the extremes.
That method has a known limitation worth stating: it describes properties that are already competing well. A poorly positioned property in any of these markets will underperform the bottom of the stated range, sometimes badly. Method detail in short term rental market analysis.
Want the numbers for a specific property?
Market averages do not buy properties. We underwrite the individual address against real comparables and send you the model.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the average revenue of a short-term rental?
Across the 20 markets we track, estimated gross revenue ranges from roughly $38,000 to $230,000 a year depending on market, capacity, and positioning. A mid-market three to four bedroom property in a proven drive-to market commonly estimates in the $55,000 to $110,000 range.
Which short-term rental market makes the most money?
On gross revenue, premium ski and large-cabin markets lead, with Park City and the Smoky Mountains topping this list. On return per dollar invested the ranking inverts: lower-basis markets such as Broken Bow and Branson typically produce stronger cash-on-cash returns because entry price is so much lower.
How is short-term rental revenue calculated?
Multiply average daily rate by occupancy by 365. The arithmetic is trivial; the difficulty is sourcing honest inputs. Use eight to twelve genuinely comparable active listings, live at least twelve months, and underwrite to the median rather than the mean.
Are these revenue figures guaranteed?
No. They are estimates assembled from our own closings and active-listing comparables, offered for illustration. Actual performance varies with location within the submarket, sleeping capacity, amenities, management quality, and season. Nothing here is a projection for any specific property.