For business owners and real estate investors

Triplex STR Revenue Forecast Guide

Can a buyer defend the revenue assumption? A purchase-stage worksheet for a triplex.

A triplex can appeal to investors because of small multifamily income with unit-mix decisions. Before committing capital, answer this question for the actual address: Can a buyer defend the revenue assumption? The method is to build a month-by-month forecast from permitted, comparable properties and adjust for size, access, amenities and calendar availability.

Make the decision before the deposit is at risk

Use actual availability and realized revenue, not a screenshot of advertised nightly rates. Remove cleaning fees or taxes if they are not retained revenue. Adjust each comp for capacity, location and amenities, and disclose where evidence is thin. A new listing should carry a launch ramp until pricing and reviews have been tested.

What changes for this property

A triplex can support mixed rental strategies, yet shared circulation and unit-level permit caps may constrain the plan. Verify each legal unit, fire separation and meter arrangement. Keep existing tenant obligations visible. When comparing a mixed-use operating plan with all-long-term leasing, include the extra coordination and guest turnover cost.

The revenue case should compare full-STR, mixed-lease and all-long-term cases. Record the source, the period covered and any owner-blocked nights beside the forecast.

The physical file should address unit separation, fire systems, meters and deferred common repairs. The legal and insurance file should address license limits per parcel, tenant rights and building classification. A favorable answer on one does not repair an unsupported answer on the other. Obtain written, address-specific evidence before letting the contract's protection expire.

Documents to request

  • Comparable calendars, raw booking exports, permit record and launch calendar.
  • Property-specific records for unit separation, fire systems, meters and deferred common repairs.
  • Written confirmation of license limits per parcel, tenant rights and building classification.
  • Financing sensitivity: Income underwriting depends on verified unit rents and legal use.

Run the downside case

Worksheet: Annual gross revenue = sum of each month's available nights × expected occupancy × realized nightly revenue. Do not apply one annual average to every season.

Remove the top demand month and model a slower first quarter. Keep the original and stressed worksheets side by side. Recalculate cash needed at closing, the first twelve months of cash flow, and the reserve required to survive a delay or repair. If a source is missing, mark that input as unverified rather than filling it with the seller's optimistic estimate.

Operating exposure to price: Coordinating cleaners and residents in shared areas. Identify the vendor, fee, start date and backup for each required task. Those costs affect the underwriting and the date of the first rentable night.

Decision rule for the buyer

Do not price the deal from an unsupported annual gross number. Also test the exit: multifamily buyers will scrutinize normalized NOI. A business owner should decide whether the property still fits when attention is focused on the primary business; a real estate investor should compare the same capital with the next available deal on a consistent after-reserve basis.

Use the existing BNB Accelerator guide for the broader method, then bring the address, documents and assumptions to a qualified lender, insurer, attorney, CPA or inspector as appropriate. These pages are decision worksheets, not a representation that any listed property type is available or approved in a given market.

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